Conversion Segment Analysis — Ghana
Which client segments convert best from marketing SMS campaigns promoting KYC verification via *998*88#?
Fido sends marketing SMS to Ghana users encouraging them to complete KYC via MTN Chenosis USSD by dialing *998*88#. Since July 2025, 243,540 unique phone numbers have received these campaigns. Of the 25,047 who completed KYC, 16,222 (6.66%) successfully completed via Chenosis specifically.
Goal: Identify which user segments convert at the highest rates so we can target SMS campaigns more effectively and reduce wasted spend.
Key questions:
Users segmented by survey completion status and login recency. This combination is the strongest predictor of conversion.
| Segment | Description | Users | Conversions | Conv. Rate | Priority | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Survey Done + Recent Login | 10,728 | 6,486 | 60.5% | HIGH | 60.5% |
| B | Survey Done + Old Login | 22,338 | 11,137 | 49.9% | HIGH | 49.9% |
| D | No Survey + Recent Login | 1,726 | 300 | 17.4% | MEDIUM | 17.4% |
| C | Survey Done + Never Logged In | 2,351 | 203 | 8.6% | MEDIUM | 8.6% |
| E | No Survey + Old Login | 66,971 | 4,146 | 6.2% | LOW | 6.2% |
| G | No Survey + Signup 30-90d | 1,191 | 57 | 4.8% | LOW | 4.8% |
| F | No Survey + New Signup (<30d) | 3,411 | 159 | 4.7% | LOW | 4.7% |
| H | No Survey + Old/No Signup | 115,794 | 2,559 | 2.2% | SKIP | 2.2% |
Users who actively use the app convert at 6-7x the rate of inactive users. Even 1-3 logins dramatically increases conversion.
| Logins (35d) | Users | Conv. Rate | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ logins | 2,192 | 60.1% | 60.1% |
| 4-10 logins | 4,428 | 59.5% | 59.5% |
| 1-3 logins | 5,834 | 48.6% | 48.6% |
| 0 logins | 212,056 | 8.6% | 8.6% |
Users who logged in within 7 days convert at 35%. After 30 days, rates drop to single digits.
| Last Login | Users | Conversions | Conv. Rate | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Within 7 days | 57,110 | 19,985 | 35.0% | 35.0% |
| 8-30 days ago | 8,287 | 452 | 5.5% | 5.5% |
| 31-90 days ago | 10,233 | 553 | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| 91-180 days ago | 16,335 | 719 | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| 180+ days ago | 9,798 | 360 | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Never logged in | 122,747 | 2,978 | 2.4% | 2.4% |
Fresh signups (within 7 days) have the highest conversion. Rates remain above 12% for users up to 1 year old, then drop.
| Signup Recency | Users | Conversions | Conv. Rate | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-7 days | 23,781 | 6,670 | 28.1% | 28.1% |
| 8-30 days | 13,771 | 2,018 | 14.7% | 14.7% |
| 31-90 days | 15,550 | 1,970 | 12.7% | 12.7% |
| 91-180 days | 20,544 | 2,807 | 13.7% | 13.7% |
| 181-365 days | 27,943 | 3,408 | 12.2% | 12.2% |
| 365+ days | 122,921 | 8,174 | 6.7% | 6.7% |
Clear sweet spot at 4-6 SMS (41.5% conversion). Diminishing returns after 6 SMS, and significant fatigue after 10+.
| SMS Count | Users | Conversions | Conv. Rate | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-6 SMS | 10,051 | 4,170 | 41.5% | 41.5% |
| 1 SMS | 63,806 | 9,362 | 14.7% | 14.7% |
| 2-3 SMS | 65,196 | 7,036 | 10.8% | 10.8% |
| 7-10 SMS | 53,110 | 3,359 | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| 11-20 SMS | 32,082 | 1,116 | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 21+ SMS | 265 | 4 | 1.5% | 1.5% |
16.8% convert same day, but the majority (51.6%) take 30+ days — likely converting on subsequent SMS touches or through other nudges.
| Time to Convert | Conversions | % of Total | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Same day | 4,213 | 16.8% | 16.8% |
| 1 day | 1,107 | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| 2-3 days | 900 | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| 4-7 days | 1,426 | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| 8-14 days | 1,751 | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| 15-30 days | 2,723 | 10.9% | 10.9% |
| 30+ days | 12,927 | 51.6% | 51.6% |
Device is not a strong differentiator. Apple leads slightly (20.2%), but all major brands fall in the 15-20% range.
| Device | Users | Conversions | Conv. Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | 33,578 | 6,788 | 20.2% |
| Tecno | 16,338 | 2,881 | 17.6% |
| Infinix | 7,318 | 1,273 | 17.4% |
| Samsung | 38,934 | 6,645 | 17.1% |
| Huawei | 4,641 | 707 | 15.2% |
| Itel | 6,846 | 1,028 | 15.0% |
Among users with known region, conversion rates are consistently strong (54-59%) across all major regions. 181K users (81%) have unknown region.
| Region | Users | Conversions | Conv. Rate | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashanti | 7,736 | 4,579 | 59.2% | 59.2% |
| Volta | 2,163 | 1,271 | 58.8% | 58.8% |
| Eastern | 3,903 | 2,254 | 57.8% | 57.8% |
| Western | 2,402 | 1,381 | 57.5% | 57.5% |
| Central | 4,584 | 2,594 | 56.6% | 56.6% |
| Greater Accra | 16,143 | 8,811 | 54.6% | 54.6% |
| Unknown | 181,578 | 552 | 0.3% | 0.3% |
Note: Unknown region users are overwhelmingly those who never logged in or completed their profile, explaining the 0.3% conversion.
Users who completed the survey and have any login history. These are deepest in the funnel. Expected conversion: 50-60%.
Active users who skipped the survey but still show engagement. Expected conversion: ~17%.
New users signed up within last 30 days without survey. Fresh intent. Expected conversion: ~15-28% (depends on signup recency).
Completed survey but never opened the app. May respond to USSD-only approach. Expected conversion: ~8.6%.
115,794 users with only 2.2% conversion. These users represent 52% of SMS recipients but only 10% of conversions. Burning SMS budget.
The conversion sweet spot. Users in this range show 41.5% conversion — likely because multiple touches reinforce the message without fatigue.
Severe fatigue. Conversion drops to 3.5% at 11-20 SMS and 1.5% at 21+. If a user hasn't converted after 6-10 SMS, they likely won't.